New York Times: “These magazines are gone until they come back, although they will probably come back in different clothing,” [John Battelle of the Industry Standard] said. “There will be another boom in the business cycle, and there will be a new crop of magazines to cover it.”
That’s absolutely the wrong way to think about things. It’s true that business is cyclical, but it’s not a perfect sine wave. You could have said during the 1972-74 bear market that stocks would come back, and you would have been right. They came back… starting in 1982. The period between 1994 and early 2000 was extraordinary, the likes of which we may never see again in a lifetime. I’m an optimist about the future, both in terms of technology and business opportunities, but we have to put out of our minds the notion that the current doldrums are but a temporary pause.
By the way, has anyone noticed that the crash has now lasted as long as the bubble? The truly irrational upswing of the dotcom boom went from 1998 to March 2000, which is now two and a half years ago.